A joint report titled “West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook” by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), World Food Program (WFP), and others, forecasts an increase in the prices of staple foods, including rice, maize, millet, and cereals, in Nigeria and other West African countries in 2024.
The report attributes the projected rise in prices to a combination of factors such as production reduction, trade restrictions, global geopolitical factors, and more.
According to the report, staple crop prices, including maize, wheat, rice, and millet, are expected to surpass the five-year average due to ongoing production deficits, trade restrictions, insecurity in the Sahel region, elevated global prices, high transaction costs, and currency depreciation in the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea.
Nigeria’s Specific Challenges
The report singles out Nigeria, stating that an increase in annual inflation, driven by the removal of fuel subsidies, will push staple food prices above their average level. Limited production, sustained demand, trade restrictions, insecurity, and other factors fuel this price increase.
The report notes,
“Moreover, Nigeria’s annual inflation continues to climb, exacerbated by the removal of fuel subsidies. Prices are projected to stay above both average owing to the limited production performance, sustained demand, constrained humanitarian assistance, continuing trade disruptions, and security and socioeconomic challenges in the region.”
Production Trends and Import Dynamics
The report forecasts a significant 42% decline in maize, sorghum, and millet production due to agroclimatic challenges, insecurity, and rising production costs. In contrast, rice production is expected to increase, accompanied by a reduction in imports.
The decline in imports is attributed to “global trade restrictions, shipping costs, lower national exchange rates, and domestic policies.”
Additionally, the report highlights positive regional production outlooks for roots, tubers like cassava and yam, and cash crops, thanks to the strong output of major coastal country producers. The overall scenario emphasizes the complex interplay of various factors influencing the West African food market in the coming year.
