The World Bank has forecasted a 3.7% growth in Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025. According to the report titled “Global Economic Prospect: Subdued Growth, Multiple Challenges,” the projection indicates an improvement from the expected 2.9% growth in 2023. The World Bank attributes the momentum to macro-fiscal reforms gradually bearing fruit.
The report notes that the baseline forecast implies that per capita income will reach its pre-pandemic level only in 2025. The Washington-based bank acknowledges the gradual realization of macro-fiscal reforms initiated under President Bola Tinubu, including removing fuel subsidies and foreign exchange rate harmonization, focusing on infrastructure development, manufacturing, and technology.
The economic growth is expected to be driven by agriculture, construction, services, and trade. The World Bank anticipates that inflation will gradually ease as the effects of last year’s exchange rate reforms and the removal of fuel subsidies fade. The structural reforms are expected to boost fiscal revenue over the forecast period.
The report acknowledges that Nigeria’s GDP softened to an estimated 2.9% in 2023 due to disruptive currency demonetization policies. It also highlights that growth in the region’s three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola—slowed to an average of 1.8% last year.
While the GDP growth projection is positive, concerns persist over rising public debt, persistent inflation, a high cost of living, and a weak business environment, which may challenge Nigeria’s growth prospects.
It is worth noting that the World Bank’s forecast is subject to various economic factors and policy developments that may influence the actual growth trajectory of Nigeria’s economy in the coming years.
