In a recent revelation, Nigeria emerges as Africa’s leading crude oil producer for October 2023, as per the monthly oil market report released by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on November 13, 2023.
The report breaks down the oil production figures, excluding condensate production, for the top four African oil producers:
- Nigeria: 1.35 million barrels per day
- Libya: 1.18 million barrels per day
- Angola: 1.14 million barrels per day
- Algeria: 961,000 barrels per day
Secondary sources indicate that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 27.90 million barrels per day in October 2023, marking an 80 thousand barrels per day increase compared to the previous month. Noteworthy production rises were observed in Angola, Iran, and Nigeria, while Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait experienced declines.
Report Highlights
1. Global Oil Demand Growth
The latest OPEC report forecasts a slight increase in the world’s oil demand growth for 2023, now standing at 2.5 million barrels per day.
2. Oil Price Decline
Despite robust market fundamentals, the report notes a recent decline in oil prices. This trend is primarily attributed to significant reductions in net long positions by financial market speculators throughout October.
3. Nigeria’s Inflationary Pressures
The OPEC report sheds light on Nigeria’s escalating inflationary pressure, primarily due to the removal of petrol subsidies and the devaluation of the naira. This resulted in a notable acceleration in the pace of inflation, reaching 26.7% in September, a significant rise from August’s 25.8%.
4. OPEC Crude Demand and Production
According to the report, the demand for OPEC crude in 2023 has held steady at 29.1 million barrels per day, with a modest increase of 0.6 mb/d compared to 2022. The report provides a quarterly breakdown of OPEC crude production against demand.
- First Quarter 2023: OPEC crude production reached 28.8 mb/d, surpassing demand by 0.4 mb/d.
- Second Quarter 2023: OPEC crude production slightly decreased to 28.3 mb/d, falling below demand by 0.1 mb/d.
- Third Quarter 2023: OPEC crude production averaged 27.6 mb/d, lagging demand by 1.0 mb/d.
5. Future Outlook
Looking ahead to 2024, the demand for OPEC crude remains unchanged at 29.9 mb/d, indicating a rise of 0.8 mb/d compared to the estimated 2023 level.
6. Petrol Exports from Europe to West Africa
The report highlights a noteworthy development concerning petrol exports from Europe to West Africa. Following the removal of petrol subsidies in Nigeria, these exports reportedly declined by approximately 28%. This decline was attributed to reduced refinery output during maintenance and a notable drop in demand, leading to substantial stock increases in the Atlantic Basin.
