Scientists are sounding a stark warning about the potential nature of the next pandemic, suggesting that it could unleash the most contagious and deadliest disease ever witnessed in human history. Their concerns extend beyond the immediate impact of such a scenario, projecting that deaths from animal-borne viruses, such as Ebola, Marburg, SARSCOV1, Nipah, and machupo, could surge by 12 times in 2050 due to the effects of climate change.
A recent analysis, published in BMJ Global Health, delves into the alarming trends of four specific viral pathogens, examining over 3,000 outbreaks between 1963 and 2019. The study identified 75 spillover events across 24 countries, causing 17,232 deaths, predominantly from filoviruses like Ebola in Africa. Researchers highlight a concerning annual increase of almost five percent in epidemics, predicting a fourfold rise in spillover events and a twelvefold increase in deaths by 2050 if current rates persist.
Interestingly, the study excludes COVID-19, the virus responsible for the 2020 global pandemic, believed to have originated in bats. The researchers emphasize the ongoing threat posed by zoonotic diseases, or spillovers, where pathogens jump from animals to humans. They attribute the heightened risk to climate change and deforestation, leading to increased human-animal interactions.
Experts from the United States biotech company Ginkgo Bioworks are urgently calling for global action to mitigate this risk to public health. They emphasize the potential for more frequent human epidemics caused by zoonotic diseases, underscoring the impact of climate change and deforestation in facilitating increased contact between humans and animals.
Beyond the immediate concerns, attention is drawn to the potential ‘Big One,’ a term used to describe a future pandemic harboring the most contagious and deadliest diseases known to humanity. The focus shifts to the paramyxovirus family, comprising over 75 viruses, including well-known ones like mumps and measles. Added to the United States National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ pandemic watch list, these viruses, including the Nipah virus with a 75% fatality rate, are spotlighted for their efficient transmission among humans.
Experts highlight the unique characteristics of paramyxoviruses, noting their stability in terms of mutation compared to the fast-evolving nature of the flu and COVID-19. The concern is not their mutation but their effectiveness in transmitting among humans, raising hypothetical scenarios of a highly contagious and deadly paramyxovirus emerging.
Again, the specific viruses within the paramyxovirus family, such as rubulavirus, which includes mumps. The ease of infection in close quarters among humans, apes, pigs, and dogs poses a significant risk. Historical perspectives, such as the discovery of measles in the 9th century, highlight the challenges posed by infectious diseases, with potential replacements emerging once others are eradicated.
Strengthening Australia’s Pandemic Preparedness, a 2022 report, underscores the growing interconnectedness of human, animal, plant, and environmental health, with viruses increasingly crossing from animals to humans. The report emphasizes the emergence of approximately two novel viruses in humans each year, some with pandemic potential, raising concerns about the global spread of infectious diseases.
The evolving nature of the monkeypox virus, with researchers in the United Kingdom reporting a higher mutation rate in 2022 compared to 2018. The potential for sustained human-to-human transmission raises concerns about an even more infectious strain emerging.
Additionally, the World Health Organization warns of the growing threat of dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease responsible for thousands of deaths annually. Dengue fever, with a fatality rate of one death per 100 patients, could become a major concern in the United States and southern Europe by 2030. Warming temperatures are expected to drive the spread of mosquitoes carrying the disease deeper into these regions, potentially leading to endemic cases.
Conclusion: Pandemic disease
A comprehensive picture of the complex and evolving landscape of infectious diseases. The intertwined factors of climate change, deforestation, and increased human-animal interactions create a breeding ground for potential pandemics. Urgent global action is advocated to address these risks and enhance pandemic preparedness on a worldwide scale.
Source: The guardian
