The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025, lowering it to 3.0% due to falling global oil prices.
This update was published in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which was unveiled during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank taking place in Washington, DC.
The new figure marks a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the Fund’s earlier projection of 3.2% for Nigeria.
According to the report: “For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to decline slightly from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, before recovering modestly to 4.2% in 2026.
“Among the larger economies, the growth forecast for Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices.”
The IMF also highlighted that other key African economies are experiencing similar headwinds.
The report stated: “In South Africa, the growth forecast is revised downward by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, reflecting slowing momentum from a weaker-than-expected 2024 performance, deteriorating sentiment due to heightened uncertainty, intensification of protectionist policies, and a deeper slowdown in major economies.”
In a more significant adjustment, the IMF drastically slashed South Sudan’s outlook, saying: “South Sudan has a downward revision of 31.5 percentage points for 2025 due to delays in resuming oil production following damage to a key pipeline.”
The economic outlook for several countries in the region remains fragile, with global oil prices continuing to play a major role in shaping growth trajectories.
