U.S. Vice President, Kamala Harris, has garnered sufficient delegates to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, setting her up to face Donald Trump in the upcoming election.
The key question is how Harris will perform against Trump in the November election.
According to a recent poll conducted by Morning Consult, the first since Biden exited the race, Trump holds a narrow lead over Harris, with 47% compared to her 45%. This represents a significant decrease from the six-point lead Trump previously had over the 81-year-old incumbent.
The poll also revealed that more Democratic voters are strongly motivated to vote compared to Republicans, by a margin of 27% to 24%.
While Trump remains a strong favorite to reclaim the White House, according to prediction markets, Harris’s chances are improving. Within 24 hours leading up to 9:45 a.m. EST on Tuesday, the implied probability of a Harris victory increased from 38% to 41%, as reported by the political prediction market PredictIt. Conversely, Trump’s likelihood of winning decreased slightly from 60% to 56%.
Before Biden’s announcement, a Financial Times poll average indicated that Harris was trailing Trump by approximately three percentage points, a gap that has been closing in recent weeks.
However, it is important to approach these figures with caution: many of the Harris-Trump polls have focused on a hypothetical matchup rather than the actual contest that is now underway.
Throughout Biden’s term, both he and Harris have shared similar approval ratings, with Harris generally trailing slightly behind the president. This trend shifted recently, as Biden hit a personal low in approval ratings, based on FiveThirtyEight’s averages.
With over 100 days until the U.S. election on November 5, these numbers are likely to change, potentially significantly, if recent history serves as an indicator.
