The United Kingdom has ushered in a new era with the Labour Party’s Keir Starmer becoming the new British Prime Minister after a decisive victory in the general elections.
Entrepreneurng learnt that in his inaugural speech outside 10 Downing Street, Starmer emphasized the urgency of rebuilding Britain and creating opportunities for all citizens.
Starmer’s vision for a renewed Britain, however, carries significant implications for the UK’s international appeal, particularly concerning Labour’s immigration policies.
This is especially pertinent for Nigerians, who constitute a substantial portion of the UK’s migrant population.
Starmer’s Net Migration Plan
Since last year, the Labour Party has been clear about its goal to reduce net migration and focus on building the country from within. “The overall immigration level must be properly controlled and managed. So, Labour will reduce net migration,” Starmer stated.
He also mentioned reforms to the points-based immigration system to ensure it is fair and properly managed, with suitable restrictions on visas and a link between immigration and skills policy.
While Labour has not set a specific target, it aims to bring net migration down to “a couple of hundred thousand a year.”
This follows the Conservative Party’s previous efforts under Rishi Sunak to limit annual migration to 300,000 people.
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast from March 2024 projects that net migration will stabilize at around 350,000 annually over the next five years.
Starmer also plans to reduce dependence on overseas workers in certain sectors by introducing workforce and training plans, particularly in construction, IT, and engineering.
“The days of a sector languishing endlessly on immigration shortage lists with no action to train up workers will come to an end,” he declared.
Salaries, Dependants, and Minimum Income
Last year, the UK heightened tensions by announcing significant changes to its migration policies, including raising the minimum income requirement for family visas from £18,600 to £29,000.
Starmer intends to have the Migration Advisory Committee review these policies’ effectiveness but has committed to maintaining the ban on care workers bringing dependants into the UK.
In 2023, under Sunak, the UK also increased immigration fees by 35 percent to £490 and raised the Immigration Health Surcharge from £15 to £115.
Implications for the UK
Implementing Labour’s proposed immigration policies will come with costs. A significant portion of the UK’s net migration figure comprises international students, with Nigeria and India leading in student or sponsored study visas granted in the past five years.
According to BusinessDay, most of the increase in main applicants between 2019 and 2023 were from India and Nigeria.
The Migration Advisory Committee has noted that tuition fees from international students subsidize those of domestic students and help expand course offerings while compensating for financial losses on domestic students and research.
These students also contribute to the short-term labor supply in the UK, both as students and through the graduate route.
Following the ban on bringing families, the UK has already seen a decline in international student applications, including from Nigerians.
Between January and March 2024, only 40,700 study visa applications were submitted, a 79 percent decrease from the same period in 2023. This drop has led at least 15 UK universities to announce job cuts due to lower enrollment from foreign students.
The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) reported a 46 percent decline in undergraduate study applications from Nigeria in February 2024, highlighting the importance of residency and family presence for international students.
High tuition fees and inflationary pressures on Nigeria’s naira have further discouraged Nigerians from attending UK universities. If this trend continues, about 71 percent of Nigerian student applications could be lost, putting hundreds of university staff jobs at risk.
The number of Nigerians working in the NHS has also declined since the UK stopped allowing care workers to sponsor dependants, dropping from over 18,000 in 2022 to 10,494 in 2023.
Experts Weigh In
Despite Labour’s proposed changes, some experts remain optimistic. John Ojikutu, an aviation security expert, believes Labour has historically been friendly towards Nigeria.
“If they’re going to reduce migration, they will reduce migration from the Middle East where they have problems,” he suggested, indicating that Nigeria might fare better under Labour than under the Conservative Party.
Immigration expert John Obua, however, advises a wait-and-see approach, noting that the outlook for Nigerians seeking better opportunities in the UK does not appear favorable at the moment.
