SB Morgen (SBM) Intelligence, a geopolitical research firm, has highlighted persistent challenges to food security in West Africa, including conflicts in food-producing regions, climate change, and pest infestations.
In its latest report, “Unbounded Set: Jollof Index Q2 2024,” SBM analyzes the factors contributing to rising food prices. The index focuses on Nigeria and Ghana and examines the costs of major ingredients used in jollof rice, such as rice, curry, thyme, seasoning, groundnut/vegetable oil, turkey/chicken, beef, pepper, tomatoes, salt, and onions.
The report notes that while Nigeria struggles with high food inflation, Ghana has shown slight improvements.
“In Nigeria, the year-on-year food inflation rate increased from 40.53% in April 2024 to 40.87% in June 2024,” SBM reported. “The month-on-month rate decreased from 5.75% in March to 0.52% in June. However, despite this monthly slowdown, the overall trend in food prices remains concerning and continues to severely impact household access to food. This has led to numerous problems, including a typical increase in acute malnutrition cases.”
In contrast, Ghana’s food inflation rates improved over the same period, with the year-on-year rate decreasing from 26.8% in April 2024 to 24% in June 2024. Despite this improvement, Ghana still faces significant challenges.
The national average cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice (across 13 markets) increased significantly from ₦16,955 in March to ₦20,274 in June, marking a 19.6 percent rise. This surge was primarily driven by substantial price hikes in key ingredients, especially tomatoes and peppers.
“The spike in tomato costs has been attributed to seasonal changes and a severe infestation of Tuta absoluta, a major tomato pest. Between March and June, the price of ‘Grade A’ tomatoes skyrocketed from ₦50,000 to ₦100,000, with similar price hikes recorded for pepper,” SBM said.
The report also linked the tomato price surge to the Eid al-Fitr holiday in April, which disrupted the food supply chain. Despite these challenges, Nigerians have shown resilience by experimenting with alternative ingredients like carrot and cucumber stews to replace traditional tomato-based recipes. However, these efforts have been hindered by concurrent price increases in alternative food items such as garri and beans.
Analyzing the impact of food inflation across the 13 markets in Nigeria, SBM found that the Onitsha market experienced the highest percentage increase at 50 percent. “The cost of preparing jollof rice rose from ₦14,900 in March 2024 to ₦22,350 in June 2024. This substantial increase in Onitsha, previously one of the more affordable markets, underscores the pervasive nature of food inflation affecting all regions,” the report stated.
Awka also saw a significant increase of 33.5%, with prices rising from ₦15,600 to ₦20,825. Bauchi experienced a sharp rise, with the cost of preparing jollof rice increasing by 33.0%, from ₦16,970 to ₦22,570. Similarly, Dugbe Market in Ibadan saw a 30.2% rise, with prices increasing from ₦15,620 to ₦20,330.
Nyanya Market saw prices increase by 24.9%, rising from ₦17,500 to ₦21,850. On the other hand, Balogun Market in Lagos recorded the lowest percentage increase at 2.3%, with prices rising from ₦17,300 to ₦17,700.
SBM also identified persistent foreign exchange (FX) restrictions on rice imports, rising energy costs, and “precautionary food retention” by farmers as additional factors contributing to Nigeria’s food inflation crisis.
The cost of Making Ghana Jollof Decreased Between March and June
In Ghana, SBM reported fluctuations in the cost of preparing jollof rice from March 2024 to June 2024. “In March, the price was GHS 408.75. This increased to GHS 439.75 in April and GHS 463.25 in May before experiencing a significant decrease to GHS 322 in June,” the report stated.
“The overall trend shows initial inflationary pressures followed by a sharp decline in June. This indicates a significant slowdown in price hikes of most food items across Ghanaian markets relative to May 2024, when prices rose stratospherically.”
SBM attributed the sharp decline in June to factors such as improved supply chains, seasonal harvests, or government interventions to reduce food prices as the election approaches.
