By Dr Austin Nweze
In the year 2000 the old economy stepped aside and the world entered into a new economy called the “Knowledge Economy.” It is an economy where growth – both economic, business, etc – is fueled by innovation. It was the panic of the 1999 Y2K bug that ushered in the knowledge economy. There was a global fear that all the computer systems in the world were going to crash because the programmers did not take certain things into consideration. That fear was germane but it was something else that was about to change: a shift in power from the “strong to the weak,” in the boardrooms, battlefields, nations states, knowledge institutions, and religious institutions.
One of the notable shifts in power was the emergence of the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). Let’s take India for example. The World Bank in 1990/1 declared India technically bankrupt. At that period India had about $900 million in foreign reserves. Letters of credit were not honored because there was no cash to back it up. The government of India after studying the World Bank report decided to act on the areas that needed improvement starting from the business environment. They focused on improving on the ease of doing business to attract investments into the country. Right from 1950 India made huge investment in education and established India Institute of Technology modeled after MIT in the United States. So, in 1999 during the panic the India outsourcing industry emerged to boost the economy. So, India became one of the first beneficiaries of the knowledge economy boom. India has become the biggest supplier of global CEOs. More Indian are running multinational companies dotted all over the world. The “bankrupt” India has become the “incredible” India in less than two decades.
Brazil has not done badly within the period. Brazil has become the sixth largest economy in the world. Through effective economic policies and focus on developing entrepreneurship and industrialization, they have been able to move over 23 million people to the middle class. China on the other hand is still trudging on to become the world largest economy. Goldman Sacs predicted that China would become the dominant economy by 2025. If they are able to achieve that, economic power will finally shift to the East (Asia) from the West.
Anver Versi wrote in the December, 2013 edition of African Business that the nature of power is changing. “The old, monolithic structures are decaying and a multitude of new players are entering the stage,” he says. We have seen new players enter the global stage in politics, military, business, technology, music, movies, entertainment, etc. Versi, quoting Moises Naim, says: “It has become easier to gain power, harder to hold it and easier to lose it.”
In Nigeria for instance, the North has held power for over three decades, right from Nigeria’s independence in 1960. In 1999 power shifted to the West (Olusegun Obasanjo). The North wanted power back desperately that Obasanjo reluctantly handed over power to a very sick man (Umaru Ya’Ardua) who later died in office. Then another power shift brought in President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan from Niger Delta, South-South region of Nigeria. All hell was let loose in 2011 after winning the presidential election. Some Northern elites promised that Nigeria would be ungovernable for Jonathan. They have so far made their threat good. The Boko Haram elements or insurgence are holding sway in the whole North Eastern Nigeria, maiming and killing innocent citizens. The Nigerian security forces seem “powerless” because they feel their “hands are tied.” By what and by whom, nobody seems to know. That is understandable because no change happens without resistance from those who want the status quo to remain. Niccolo Machiavelli had often reminded us that those who benefit from the status quo often resist change or new order of things.
One important thing they have not realized is that the old Nigeria is gone forever and a new Nigeria is born. Change has occurred and the old establishment has crumbled. The Boko Haram insurgency is the result of this change or power shift that has occurred. Maitama Sule, a well-respected politician of Northern extraction, describing the new Northern elites and how things have changed, said this new generation is only interested in themselves and in making money. They have put self-interest above Northern interest. Sule remembered what the late Ahmadu Bello taught them as young people. He said the Sultan told them that they cannot be running and be scratching their buttocks at the same time. What this really means is that they should always put the Northern interest above their personal interest. That was the old order. The knowledge economy is all about accelerated change – a period where “no condition is permanent,” a period where centers of power keep shifting from one group to another. Each dispensation creates its own centers of power. No one or group or section can hold power for too long anymore because power has become too slippery.
The recent events in North Africa are pointers to the fact that regimes that have stayed long in power are no longer welcome. Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, and Morocco have all experienced regime changes in a violent manner. Syria is still going through an unfortunate civil war that has torn that nation apart and with huge cost in human and material resources. The Asad family’s hold in power is temporary. At the end of the day, after the war, power must shift. Nothing can stop it. It can only be delayed for a moment longer.
Given another opportunity Mohammed Morsi, the embattled former president of Egypt would do things differently. When he assumed power he probably thought that he was going to stay as long as Hosni Mubarak who was ousted from power after about three decades but he was wrong. Moises Naim captured it this way: “When he (Morsi) stepped into Mubarak’s office, he expected to be able to call upon all the forces his predecessor had. Instead, he found the cupboard empty – the nature of power had changed and it now lay with the people in the streets.”
This dispensation, I repeat again and again, is a dispensation of rapid and accelerated change. It is global in nature and there is absolutely nothing anybody can do to stop it. It must run its course. Anyone that tries or attempts to stop it will be consumed by it. People power is the real McCoy. Everywhere in the world you find the old order giving way for the new order. Power is shifting to the new generation of both political, business and military elite. Power has become very transient. How long anyone can hold on to power can no longer be determined. To survive, you must work in harmony and align youself to this current reality.
Ukraine, since December 2013 and early 2014 has had its share of protests against the ruling government. The city of Kiev has been beseeched by protesters whose only aim was to oust the ruling government for non-performance. The government appealed to the people in the streets to retreat but to no avail. Several people have died since the protest began but there is no retreat and no surrender by the people. In January 2014 the Prime Ministered threw in the towel and resigned his job. Still the people in the streets refused to retreat insisting that the president must step down. This is the new nature of power in this knowledge economy.
Centers of power: Who constitute the power brokers – those whose opinions or actions are influential in the decision process? It is important to understand and in fact appreciate – the processes by which issues are resolved, and in whose interest such decisions are often taken. Each Dispensation of government creates its own power centers. Centres of power evolve over time. When governments change, the centres shift in the sense that some formerly influential people leave, while others get in. The relations and friends – cronies- of the principal officers become centres of influence in some ways. They become appointed as aides and confidantes of presidents, vice-presidents, governors, and heads of departments and government agencies.
Power Centers in contemporary Nigeria: In the Nigerian case, for instance, one of the latest additions to this concept is the emergence of the Governors Group as a power center. We saw it in the March 2008 National Convention of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), at which the governors’ influence led to the emergence of Vincent Ogbulafor as the party’s National Chairman, against other visible candidates for the post. Also, emergence of Okwesilieze Nwodo as PDP chairman still point to the fact that the governors exert so much power in deciding who rules or becomes what in Nigeria.
Governors as Centers of Power: The governors, both in government and out of government, have also wielded power to influence activities in other areas of the nation’s affairs, including the appointment of certain government officials. Also the emergence of Yar’Adua as president was as a result of the power the governors wielded.
There are still more centers of power in Nigeria and that include: The military (especially the retired officers and the politically exposed ones), Labor leaders, senior civil/public servants, traditional rulers, religious leaders. For example, Nigeria is one of the few countries one can easily recall where monarchy and a republic status co-exist.
Power change in organizations: Organizations are not left out in the power shift.
