Deepwater production is set to increase by over 60 per cent between 2022 and 2030, growing from 6 per cent to 8 per cent of overall upstream production even as ultra-deepwater production continues to expand and will account for more than half of all deepwater production in 2024.
From just 300,000 barrels per day in 1990, production from ultra-deep water is expected to hit 10.4 million bond by the end of 2022 and will by the completion of the decade, surpass 17 million bpd, Wood Mackenzie said in a report.
According to Woodmac, Brazil remains the leading deepwater producer, accounting for around 30 per cent of current global capacity and is expected to continue to grow.
Guyana, the most significant new entrant, will be producing one million bpd within the next five years. In total 14 other countries will contribute to the deepwater supply mix in the coming years.
Despite the diversification of sources, and corporate participants, control over major deepwater projects sits in the hands of relatively few companies. Just eight companies account for 65 per cent of deepwater production and 67 per cent of the remaining project value.
Rig zone reported that Petrobras and the seven oil majors dominate deepwater production, operating 22 of the top 25 deepwater assets.
Petrobras’ deepwater portfolio is around twice as big as its nearest peer, Shell, which stands out among the majors for leading production and cash flow. ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies show the highest rates of growth this decade.
The report stated that typically, only the best subsurface plays become commercial in water this deep, noting that deepwater basins, therefore, tend to be hyper-productive, recovering huge volumes of oil and gas from each well.
This, it added, translates into high economic returns and low Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensities relative to most other oil and gas resource themes.
The majors, it stressed, are focused on cutting deepwater emissions by reducing flaring and methane leaks, optimising operations at existing platforms, and, where possible, facility electrification.
“Brazil’s scale means it is the highest absolute emitter and its performance is contingent on Petrobras’ decarbonisation aspirations,” it noted.